Monday, May 30, 2005

The French say Non - whoopee

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/050530/325/fk2ni.html
So the French people defied their government and rejected the constitutional draft.
Its not too great a surprise.
It's just that there are serious differences between the major countries, and so a hotch potch of compromises was bound to piss off virtually every country , as every country has something to lose by it ! The populace will never vote for a losing something unless there is a seriously gainful side that would entail eventually [ and then probably not - I heard they were thinking of asking turkeys to vote about abolishing Christmas].
So what happens now?
Firstly with France saying 'sod the government' all arguments by other parliaments pro the constitution are now without power.
Secondly, if a major power says non, smaller powers cannot now be coerced. Newcomers will want to say to their governments ' cool it- let's slow this boat down a bit'.
i suspect that most countries will now do a Frenchie and say no.
I suspect most countries that were going to have a referendum will now not bother.

Short term , say till this Tuesday night, France can say ' we'll have another vote till that lot get it right ' and try to barnstorm the Dutch to say yes. if that happens all other referenda can be postponed.
Longer term - say end of the week, they can renegotiate the small point of contention in the document and say they'll have another go. This wouldnt stop the Dutch vote, and so could easily produce a Nein there, which scuppers the others-see short term.
The small point is primarily [I believe] the UK bits we stuck in. This then places Pres Tony as leader to argue against himself ......... He'll reword those items slightly and the funfair can restart. I pesonally dont believe that can happen and so.....
Ditch the whole thing, which is what economists have been saying since it was first published.
Hoorah for the people, who aint policians and can thus see the whole thing in their own selfish way !

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